Can You Fit 100 Candles on a Cake?

Introduction | Task | Process | Guidance | Conclusion | Questions

Introduction
USA Today, January, 2001
     The mystique of living to be 100 will be lost by the year 2020 as 100th birthdays become commonplace, predicts Mike Parker, assistant professor of social work, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, and a gerontologist specializing in successful aging. He says that, in the 21st century, the fastest growing age group in the country will be centenarians - those who live 100 years or longer.
     "Our country is experiencing what has been called a 'triumph of survivorship,' he notes. "At the turn of the [20th] century, only one in 500 could expect to live to be 100. Among the baby boomers, one in 26 can anticipate reaching 100 or more years of age. By the year 2020, the combination of new insights about the genetics of aging and the effects of a healthy lifestyle may contribute to the capacity of humans to live beyond 120 years, which is generally considered to be the maximum age span for humans today.
     Parker suggests that this life-span extension will impact on Social Security and family structure. "In the future, our centenarian population will probably be healthier than the long-term health of Social Security. Deficits could begin to surface by 2015, and the reserves could be depleted by 2035. By the year 2020, the traditional [nuclear] family size will be smaller, and most families will have moved from a three-to a four-generational family structure. Younger generations will have great-grandparents and grandparents alive at the same time because people are living longer."

The Task
In your new job as an advisor to the governor of your state, you have been asked to prepare a portfolio or Web page to inform the residents of your state about the changing age structure of people in the United States. Your portfolio or Web page needs to contain the following information:

• a prediction for the age structure of the U.S. for the year 2050;
• a prediction of how life in the U.S. will change due to the aging of Americans;
• support for the predictions using mathematics, graphs, tables, and/or facts that you find so that the residents of your state will have confidence in your predictions.

The Process
To successfully complete this project, you will need to complete the following items.

• Find data about the age structure of the United States for the 20th century. For example, how many people were 65 or over in 1900? How many people were under 5 in 1960? How many people were 25-34 in 1980? For help, try these Web sites.
  www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0110384.html
  www.census.gov
  www.statistics.com
  www.prb.org
• Devise a method you can use to predict the age structure of the population in the future.
• Use the data on age and population to prepare some type of graph(s) or table(s) to visually display your findings.
• Find another set of data, of your choice, that relates to aging. Display the data in a graph or table and include a brief description of the data.
• Explain your findings and describe the changes that you predict in the U.S. due to an aging population.
• Be creative. Add some additional data, information, or even pictures to your portfolio or Webpage. For other data and information, try these Web sites.
  www.usatoday.com
  www.ssa.gov
  www.yahoo.com
  www.time.com/time/
  www.msnbc.com/news/NW-front_Front.asp

Guidance
Here are some additional questions and ideas you may want to consider for adding information to your project.

1. How has the average life expectancy for people in the United States changed during the 20th century?
2. How did the leading causes of death change during the 20th century? (Consider both diseases and accidents.) Why have these changed?
3. How does Social Security help retired people to meet their financial needs? In what other ways do retired people find the money to cover expenses?
4. How might products, services, and advertising change as the age of the population changes?
5. Will the elderly work longer? Will they be able to compete in the job market with younger people?
6. In the year 2050, you may be nearing retirement age. How will your lifestyle differ from the lifestyle of your parents or grandparents when they retired?
7. Consider finding data about the age distribution of the population in another country or worldwide. Compare this data to U.S. data.

Conclusion
Here are some ideas for concluding your project.

• Present your project to your class or at a family night.
• Present the information on a Web page. Have other students critique your project and help you to make improvements to your project.
• Write a one-page summary of your project, including what you have learned from researching this topic. How has it changed your ideas about the elderly?

Questions

Lesson 1–9
Use the data below about people 65 years and over in the U.S.

1. Let the year be on the horizontal axis and let the population be on the vertical axis. Plot the ordered pairs to make a graph of this situation. (Let the year 1900 = 0.)
2. Describe how you might use this graph to predict the number of people that will be 65 years or older in 2050.
3. Use your method to make a prediction for 2050. Explain whether you think your prediction will be accurate.

Lesson 2–6
Refer to the USA TODAY article at the beginning of Unit 1.

1. According to the article, what is the probability that a person living at the turn of the 20th century would reach 100 years of age? Express your answer as a percent rounded to the nearest tenth.
2. According to the article, what is the probability that a baby boomer will reach 100 years of age? Express your answer as a percent rounded to the nearest tenth.
3. How many times more likely is it a baby boomer will reach 100 than it was for a person living at the turn of the 20th century?

Lesson 3–6
In the year 1900, the number of people 65 and over was 3,080,000. In 1910, the number of people 65 and over was 3,949,000.

1. What was the percent increase in the number of people over 65 from 1900 to 1910?
2. In 1900, the percent of the population of the U.S. that was over 65 was 4.1%. In 1910, the percent of the population of the U.S. that was over 65 was 4.3%. Find the difference in percent from 1900 to 1910.
3. Why are the answers to parts a and b different?
4. Describe how you might use percent to help you predict the number of people who will be 65 and over in 2050. Use your method to make a prediction.