Population Explosion

Introduction | Task | Process | Guidance | Conclusion | Questions

Introduction
     According to UN estimates, the world population reached 6 billion in 1999. The population had doubled in about 40 years and gained 1 billion people in just 12 years. Assuming middle—range fertility and mortality trends, world population is expected to pass 9 billion by 2050, with most of the increase in countries that are less economically developed. In this project, you will use quadratic and polynomial mathematical models that will help you to project future populations.

The Task
Your Social Studies teacher and your mathematics teacher are collaborating on a project for your class. Each student will prepare a Web page showing an application of mathematics to social studies. These will be posted on your school's Web site. You have decided to focus on presenting population data and making predictions about population. You have met with your teachers with your project proposal and they want you to present data on world population and population for two other areas, which could be countries, states, or cities. They also want you to be sure that your Web page contains the following information:

• population data for the entire world for at least the past 200 years;
• population data for two other areas, which could be countries, states, or cities for a period of at least 50 years;
• graphs and/or tables displaying the population data. The areas that you choose can show either growth or loss of population.;
• at least one mathematical model for the population of the world and your two chosen areas. You may propose more than one population model, if you prefer;
• a prediction of the population of the world and the two areas for the year 2050.

The Process
To successfully complete this project, you will need to complete the following items.

• Find data on the population of the world for at least the past 200 years. For help, try these Web sites.
  www.statistics.com
  www.census.gov
  www.infoplease.com and search for population data of your choice
  www.gazetteer.de/home.htm
  www.yahoo.com and search for population data of your choice
  www.citypopulation.de/cities.html
• Select the other two areas you wish to include in your project. Find population data for these two areas for at least the past 50 years. For help, try the Web sites listed above.
• Display each population data set in an appropriate table and/or graph.
• Refer to Unit 2 in your textbook for ideas about mathematical models for your population data.
• Be creative. Add some additional data, information, or even pictures to your Web page. Try these Web sites for additional information.
  www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
  fisher.lib.virginia.edu/census
  Search for the Web site of the country, state, or city for additional information to add to your Web page.

Guidance
Here are some additional questions and ideas you may want to consider for your project.

1. How has the median age of the population changed over the last 100 years? What problems could this present in the future?
2. What factors affect population growth?
3. What is the history of the census in the U.S.? How do other countries measure their population?
4. What areas of the world are experiencing a high population growth rate? In what areas, if any, is population decreasing?
5. Compare the population models that you chose for the world and the other two areas. How are the models similar? How are the models different?
6. What factors can affect the accuracy of population estimates made using mathematical models?
7. How has the population density of your chosen areas changed over the last 50 years?

Conclusion
Here are some ideas for concluding your project.

• Present your project to your class or at a family night.
• Write a one—page summary of your project, including what you have learned from researching this topic.

Questions

Lesson 5—1
For your project, you find this table of population for the world from 1650 through 2000.

1. Write each population in scientific notation.
2. Will using the values in scientific notation make it easier to graph the data? If not, suggest another way to write the values.
3. Rewrite each year as Years Since 1650. For example 1650 will be 0, 1750 will be 100, and so on. How will this make the data easier to graph?
4. Make a scatter plot of the data using the ordered pairs (years since 1650, population). Describe the shape of the scatter plot.
5. Find a linear equation to model the data. How well does this model fit the population data? Explain.