Do you ever wonder what your life will be like ten or twenty years from now? How will technology change between now and then? How will your life be affected by those changes?
People who try to predict the future of technology are called futurists. Often they work in a particular field, such as medicine. They look at things that happened in the past in that field, and they take note of what is happening now. They analyze current research. They consider the wants and needs of the general population. Then they put all the data together and try to figure out where it will lead. During this process, futurists use such methods as trend analysis, surveys, and simulations.
A trend is the tendency for a large number of people to do a particular thing. For example, a trend might be for consumers to buy smaller cars. In other words, many people are beginning to buy them. Futurists analyze trends to determine which ones may be important. A small-car trend, for instance, may mean that car manufacturers should limit production of SUVs and concentrate on small sedans.
Futurists make surveys to learn how people feel about something. Sometimes they survey consumers. Other times they may survey experts in a particular field to learn what people in that field are thinking about. One such survey is the Delphi Study. A panel of experts work together to ask and answer questions and to make predictions.
Futurists often use computer simulations to help predict the future. (A simulation is a make-believe situation.) They put data into the computer and then ask it, “What will happen if.?” The computer then suggests different outcomes.
Researchers, manufacturers, construction companies, governments, and others use the predictions of futurists to help determine what people’s wants and needs will be. As a result, they hope to be able to meet those wants and needs in a better way.
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For this WebQuest, your job is to look at what the future may bring to several technologies. To demonstrate what you have learned, you will answer the questions included here. You will also complete one of the activities described at the end of this WebQuest.
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Read through the following questions. Then research the Internet resources that are provided for you. As you explore the sites, look for answers to the questions. Keep a record of any sites where you find answers by noting the title and URL (Internet address). For example:
(title) Technology Student Association
(URL) www.tsaweb.org
- About a dozen people are now required in the operating room during conventional surgeries. If robotic surgery becomes popular in the future, how many people will be required?
- Briefly describe the RUF transportation system. What does RUF stand for?
- What current conditions in U. S. cities make RUF a desirable system for the future?
- Fuel cells are one possible response to energy needs in the future. Fuel-cell-powered buses are now being tested in which states?
- In 1996, 3.7 million acres in the United States were planted with genetically modified crops. How many acres were planted with GM crops in 2003?
- AutoCart is a new type of shopping center being tested. How is it different from ordinary shopping centers?
- The first AutoCart centers expect to handle up to 12,000 cars per day. Think about your family’s shopping habits. Do you think your family would shop at AutoCart? Why or why not? Based on your family’s preferences, make a prediction as to the success or failure of AutoCart. List your reasons.
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Visit the Web sites listed here to find information that will enable you to answer the questions. You may use additional sites if you wish. Be sure to keep a record of any sites you use.
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Several activities are described below. Complete one of these activities (your choice) to demonstrate the understandings you’ve gained by going on this WebQuest.
- Take part in a panel discussion on how your school might change in the future. What courses do you think students will want or need five years from now? What about foods offered in the cafeteria? Will they be different? Why or why not?
- Every year Time magazine publishes an article on the most amazing inventions for that particular year. Online or in the library, look up one of the Time articles that is at least two years old. Select three of the inventions discussed in the article. Do some research to determine if the inventions are still successful in their particular market or not. Are they still for sale?
- Make a survey of at least 10 people to learn what kinds of TV shows they would like to see offered. Analyze the results. Does there appear to be a trend in viewer interest?
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